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    Cutting carbon

    Cutting carbon: Cheap methane cuts first, and carbon removal that lasts.

    Burning fossil fuels released a projected 38.1 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide in 2025, still rising. The cheapest, surest cuts are methane leaks, and removal that lasts is still tiny.

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    Ryan K. Hertel · heyitskenton

    The problem

    What we're up against.

    • Still rising.

      Fossil carbon dioxide was projected to rise 1.1% in 2025, to a record 38.1 billion tonnes.

    • The budget is nearly spent.

      The remaining budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C, 170 billion tonnes, will be gone before 2030 at today's pace.

    • Headed for more warming.

      Under policies now in place, the world is headed for up to 2.8 degrees of warming.

    • Methane's share.

      Methane is responsible for around 30% of the rise in global temperatures since the Industrial Revolution.

    What works

    Proven, and ready to grow.

    • Plug the leaks.

      About 70% of methane from fossil fuels could be stopped with existing technology, and about 30% at no net cost, because the captured gas can be sold.

    • A treaty that worked.

      Phasing down super-polluting cooling gases under the Kigali Amendment is expected to avoid 0.3 to 0.5 degrees of warming by the end of the century.

    • Rock dust on farms.

      In a four-year field trial, spreading crushed basalt on a US farm removed carbon and raised maize and soybean yields.

    • Growth without more emissions.

      35 countries have cut their emissions while their economies grew.

    What a family could fund

    Where the money goes furthest.

    • Buy removal that lasts.

      Frontier, a coalition of buyers, has committed $1.8 billion for carbon removal that lasts more than a thousand years. So far it has contracted $679 million for 1,835,427 tonnes.

    • Close the methane money gap.

      Outside funding to cut methane from fossil fuels totals less than $1 billion, against a gap of about $60 billion in low- and middle-income countries.

    • Where philanthropy stands.

      Foundations and individuals gave $11.7 billion to $18.4 billion to cut emissions in a year, about 2.1% of all giving worldwide.

    Honest limits

    What money can't promise.

    • Most credits overclaim.

      A study of carbon credits found less than 16% were real emission cuts, and just 11% for cookstoves.

    • Removal is tiny.

      Novel carbon removal adds up to about 2 million tonnes a year, against tens of billions emitted.

    • Contracted isn't delivered.

      Of the tonnes Frontier has contracted, 87,482 have been delivered, and some deliveries may be late or never come.

    • Lab results don't always last.

      About 2.1 billion people cook on open fires or inefficient stoves, but in a large randomized trial in India, families used improved stoves irregularly and stopped maintaining them, and there was no change in health or emissions.

    • A drop in a big ocean.

      Global climate finance passed $2 trillion a year, so most of the outcome depends on governments and markets.

    Hard questions

    Asked and answered.

    1. You might ask

      Aren't carbon offsets mostly fake?

      Ryan

      Many are, which is why this chapter doesn't rest on buying offsets. It points to methane cuts that pay for themselves and removal paid for when delivered.

    2. You might ask

      Isn't removal a license to keep polluting?

      Ryan

      Scientists expect cutting emissions to do at least 80% of the work of reaching net zero, with removal doing the rest.

    3. You might ask

      Will rock dust and new methods really store carbon?

      Ryan

      Not proven yet: whether enhanced weathering removes carbon that wouldn't have been removed anyway hasn't been fully assessed.

    In the slider

    See what your fortune could do here.

    Cutting carbon

    The slider prices this cause with these numbers:

    • About $370 buys a tonne of removal that lasts: Frontier has contracted $679 million for 1,835,427 tonnes.
    • The whole need is the lasting removal scenarios call for each year by mid-century: over 3.5 billion tonnes.
    • Tonnes are contracted years ahead and some may never arrive, and today's prices are the market's price, not its cost.
    Try it in the sliderTalk to Ryan

    More of the Blueprint

    Keep reading.

    Back to Keep 100

    Sources

    Every number in this chapter, and where it came from.

    1. Source 1: Fossil fuel CO2 emissions hit record high in 2025 (opens in a new tab)

      Global Carbon Project, 13 November 2025. Checked 16 October 2026.

      The yearly budget from more than ninety research institutions.

    2. Source 2: Global Methane Tracker 2025 (opens in a new tab)

      International Energy Agency, May 2025. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A copy of the full report filed with the UK Planning Inspectorate; the agency's own site refuses automated reads.

    3. Source 3: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, 3rd Edition: Executive summary (opens in a new tab)

      University of Oxford and others, June 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

      An independent scientific assessment.

    4. Source 4: Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off target (opens in a new tab)

      UN Environment Programme, November 2025. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A copy of the full report; UNEP's own site refuses automated reads.

    5. Source 5: Executive Summary of the 2022 Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion (opens in a new tab)

      NOAA Chemical Sciences Laboratory. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A summary of the international scientific assessment. The figure is in degrees Celsius of warming by 2100.

    6. Source 6: Enhanced weathering in the US Corn Belt delivers carbon removal with agronomic benefits (Beerling and others) (opens in a new tab)

      Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 22 February 2024. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A four-year field trial on one farm. The removal figure is tonnes of CO2 per hectare.

    7. Source 7: Frontier (opens in a new tab)

      Frontier. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A coalition of companies buying carbon removal; its own figures.

    8. Source 8: Progress (opens in a new tab)

      Frontier, October 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

      Its own live figures, which will change: dollars contracted, tons contracted and tons delivered.

    9. Source 9: Funding trends 2026: Climate change mitigation philanthropy (opens in a new tab)

      ClimateWorks Foundation, 23 June 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

    10. Source 10: Systematic assessment of the achieved emission reductions of carbon crediting projects (Probst and others) (opens in a new tab)

      Nature Communications, 14 November 2024. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A synthesis of rigorous studies covering more than two thousand projects.

    11. Source 11: Household air pollution (fact sheet) (opens in a new tab)

      World Health Organization, 16 December 2025. Checked 16 October 2026.

    12. Source 12: Up in Smoke: The Influence of Household Behavior on the Long-Run Impact of Improved Cooking Stoves (Hanna, Duflo and Greenstone) (opens in a new tab)

      American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 1 February 2016. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A large randomized trial in India.

    13. Source 13: Global climate finance crosses USD 2 trillion, but pace needs to accelerate to reach climate goals (opens in a new tab)

      Climate Policy Initiative, 24 June 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

    14. Source 14: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, 3rd Edition: Costs and potentials (opens in a new tab)

      University of Oxford and others, June 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

    15. Source 15: The State of Carbon Dioxide Removal, 3rd Edition: Voluntary demand for CDR (opens in a new tab)

      University of Oxford and others, June 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.