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    Young people leaving foster care

    Young people leaving foster care: A real start, when foster care ends.

    In fiscal year 2025, 15,030 young people in America left foster care as adults, with no permanent family. In the largest randomized trial for them, one-to-one support raised their earnings and housing stability.

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    Ryan K. Hertel · heyitskenton

    The problem

    What we're up against.

    • Grown up, and on their own.

      In fiscal year 2025, 15,030 young people left foster care because they'd reached adulthood, not because they'd found a family. They leave without the lasting ties to supportive adults that every young adult benefits from.

    • Most stay housed. Too many don't.

      About two in three young people from foster care stay stably housed into their early twenties, but one in three has been homeless by then.

    • School and work come harder.

      By their mid-twenties, only 8% of the young adults in one long study had a college degree, and 46% had a job, against 80% of their peers. Nearly 80% said they wanted more education to reach their career goals.

    • Not a lack of promise.

      Researchers who followed them in California stress their resilience and enormous potential, and caution against blaming the gaps on foster care alone.

    What works

    Proven, and ready to grow.

    • The largest trial.

      In a randomized trial with more than 1,300 young people in Tennessee, Youth Villages' LifeSet program raised earnings, increased housing stability and improved some health and safety outcomes.

    • Safer relationships.

      A year on, 15% of young people offered LifeSet were in violent relationships, against about 22% of those who weren't.

    • A few more years of care.

      In California, each extra year of extended foster care raised the chance of finishing high school by about 8%, and cut the odds of homelessness or couch-surfing by about 19% and of arrest by about 28%.

    • Someone in their corner.

      In a randomized trial with 194 young people in Massachusetts, outreach workers made them more likely to enroll in college.

    • Mentors, early.

      Preteens in foster care given mentors in a randomized trial reported 30% to 82% less delinquency as teenagers.

    What a family could fund

    Where the money goes furthest.

    • What LifeSet costs.

      LifeSet cost $11,841 per young person in the Tennessee trial, in 2015 dollars, and 98.6% of those offered it took part. Support lasted 215 days on average.

    • Already growing.

      Youth Villages says nearly 35,000 young people have been helped through LifeSet since 1999, and Louisiana uses it as its model for extended foster care.

    • Public money, partly unspent.

      The federal Chafee program provides $143 million a year, plus about $43 million a year for education vouchers of up to $5,000 a young person, yet states returned about $8.9 million unspent in fiscal year 2022.

    • Families for older children.

      Wendy's Wonderful Kids, funded by the Dave Thomas Foundation, pays recruiters to find adoptive families. Children it served were 1.7 times more likely to be adopted, with the strongest effect for older children.

    Honest limits

    What money can't promise.

    • Modest gains.

      LifeSet's effects were modest, and it didn't improve education, social support or criminal involvement.

    • Not yet repeated.

      In Illinois, a study without random assignment found few impacts, and in a New Jersey trial, only two-thirds of those offered LifeSet enrolled.

    • The math is contested.

      Washington State's independent model puts LifeSet's benefits at $0.41 for every dollar, while a study sponsored by Youth Villages found net benefits in 53% of its simulations.

    • Thin evidence.

      A review of the research could recommend no approach, and rated its confidence very low, and federal auditors say little is known about which services work.

    • Money can't buy a family.

      In one study, extended care delayed homelessness but didn't prevent it, and in California it didn't appear to improve other outcomes. No program replaces a family that lasts.

    Hard questions

    Asked and answered.

    1. You might ask

      Isn't this the government's job?

      Ryan

      Mostly, and it pays: $143 million a year in federal Chafee money, and in some states, state funds pay most of the cost of these services. A family's initiative can fund what budgets rarely do: proven programs in short supply, and honest tests of new ideas.

    2. You might ask

      Do these programs actually change outcomes?

      Ryan

      A few do, modestly. Few of the programs that have been rigorously tested have improved outcomes, which is why anything funded here comes with independent evaluation.

    3. You might ask

      Why not focus on adoption instead?

      Ryan

      Do both. Adoption of older teens is rare: 827 seventeen-year-olds were adopted in fiscal year 2025, against 15,030 young people who left care as adults. Recruiters can help, most of all for older children, but young adults leaving care deserve support either way.

    In the slider

    See what your fortune could do here.

    Young people leaving foster care

    The slider prices this cause with these numbers:

    • LifeSet cost $11,841 per young person in Tennessee's randomized trial, in 2015 dollars, so today's price is higher.
    • The whole need is every young person who leaves foster care as an adult with no permanent family: 15,030 in fiscal year 2025.
    • LifeSet's gains were modest and come from one state's trial, and one independent model puts its benefits below its cost.
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    More of the Blueprint

    Keep reading.

    17 more chapters on the way

    Back to Keep 100

    Sources

    Every number in this chapter, and where it came from.

    1. Source 1: The AFCARS Dashboard (Print Version), Preliminary FFY 2025 Estimates (opens in a new tab)

      US Administration for Children and Families, 27 February 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

      Preliminary national figures.

    2. Source 2: Becoming Adults: One-Year Impact Findings from the Youth Villages Transitional Living Evaluation (opens in a new tab)

      MDRC, May 2015. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A randomized trial in Tennessee.

    3. Source 3: Foster Care Emancipations Drop to a 10-Year Low After a Decade of Growth (opens in a new tab)

      Child Trends, 1 June 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

    4. Source 4: Two Thirds of Foster Youth Remain Stably Housed Through Age 21 (opens in a new tab)

      Child Trends, 11 February 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

    5. Source 5: Midwest Evaluation of the Adult Functioning of Former Foster Youth: Outcomes at Age 26 (opens in a new tab)

      Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago, 2011. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A long-running study of young adults from three states, compared with peers nationally.

    6. Source 6: Final Wave of CalYOUTH Study Surveys Former Foster Youth at Age 23 (opens in a new tab)

      Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago, 2020. Checked 16 October 2026.

    7. Source 7: Striving for Independence: Two-Year Impact Findings from the Youth Villages Transitional Living Evaluation (opens in a new tab)

      MDRC, November 2016. Checked 16 October 2026.

    8. Source 8: Becoming Adults: One-Year Impact Findings from the Youth Villages Transitional Living Evaluation (Executive Summary) (opens in a new tab)

      MDRC, May 2015. Checked 16 October 2026.

    9. Source 9: Impacts of Extended Care on Youth Outcomes Two Years after Foster Care Has Ended (opens in a new tab)

      Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago, 2021. Checked 16 October 2026.

      California. A statistical design using differences between counties, not a randomized trial.

    10. Source 10: Educational and Economic Benefits Found for Foster Youth in Massachusetts Outreach Program (opens in a new tab)

      Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago, 2011. Checked 16 October 2026.

    11. Source 11: Fostering Healthy Futures Preventive Intervention for Children in Foster Care: Long-term Delinquency Outcomes from a Randomized Controlled Trial (Taussig and others) (opens in a new tab)

      Prevention Science, November 2021. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A randomized trial with 426 preteens in foster care.

    12. Source 12: Striving for Independence: Two-Year Impact Findings from the Youth Villages Transitional Living Evaluation (Full Report) (opens in a new tab)

      MDRC, November 2016. Checked 16 October 2026.

    13. Source 13: Youth Villages LifeSet (YV LifeSet) for former foster youth: Benefit-Cost (opens in a new tab)

      Washington State Institute for Public Policy, December 2024. Checked 16 October 2026.

      An independent benefit-cost analysis in 2023 dollars.

    14. Source 14: LifeSet (opens in a new tab)

      Youth Villages. Checked 16 October 2026.

      The organization's own account.

    15. Source 15: John H. Chafee Foster Care Program for Successful Transition to Adulthood (opens in a new tab)

      US Administration for Children and Families, 17 September 2026. Checked 16 October 2026.

    16. Source 16: Foster Care: HHS Should Help States Address Barriers to Using Federal Funds for Programs Serving Youth Transitioning to Adulthood (opens in a new tab)

      US Government Accountability Office, 22 January 2025. Checked 16 October 2026.

    17. Source 17: Case study: Improving adoption rates (opens in a new tab)

      Child Trends, 17 November 2016. Checked 16 October 2026.

      Child Trends' own evaluation, with random assignment, funded by the Dave Thomas Foundation.

    18. Source 18: Evaluation Yields Mixed Results Regarding LifeSet's Impact on Young People in Extended Foster Care (opens in a new tab)

      Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago, 2023. Checked 16 October 2026.

      Illinois. A matched comparison, not a randomized trial.

    19. Source 19: LifeSet Evaluation Baseline Data Analysis (opens in a new tab)

      Urban Institute, 12 November 2024. Checked 16 October 2026.

      A randomized trial in New Jersey. Its results aren't published yet.

    20. Source 20: Assessing the Costs and Benefits of LifeSet, the Youth Villages Program Model for Transition-Age Youth (opens in a new tab)

      RAND Corporation, 10 February 2020. Checked 16 October 2026.

      Sponsored by Youth Villages.

    21. Source 21: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Policies and Interventions that Improve Health, Psychosocial, and Economic Outcomes for Young People Leaving the Out-of-Home Care System (Taylor and others) (opens in a new tab)

      Trauma, Violence, & Abuse, December 2024. Checked 16 October 2026.

    22. Source 22: Extended Foster Care Delays but Does Not Prevent Homelessness (opens in a new tab)

      Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago, 2010. Checked 16 October 2026.